U.S. futures fall, dollar soars after Fed, BOE decision - what's moving markets By
2023-09-21 18:20:05
more 
1250

-- U.S. stocks seen lower, while the dollar soars and U.S. bond yields head higher after the Federal Reserve suggested interest rates will stay higher for longer in the wake of its latest policy decision. The Bank of England faces a tricky rate decision, while the Swiss National Bank halted its rate-hiking cycle.

1. Fed turns more hawkish

The held interest rates steady on Wednesday, as widely expected, but adopted a more hawkish stance, predicting that monetary policy will remain tighter through 2024 than previously expected.

Fed officials, as a whole, see the benchmark overnight interest rate peaking this year in the 5.50%-5.75% range, implying another hike of 25 basis points before the year’s end.

However, it’s next year that the U.S. central bank has really stiffened its stance, with its updated quarterly projections showing rates falling only 50 basis points in 2024 compared to the 100 bps of cuts suggested at the meeting in June.

In a response, Goldman Sachs now expects the Fed to begin its in the fourth quarter of next year, later than an earlier forecast of a cut in the second quarter.

"Today, participants appeared to move away from the view that monetary policy tightening could weigh on growth with a long lag next year, which weakens one argument for cutting," Goldman Sachs economists led by Jan Hatzius said in a note.

"We think this means that inflation will have to fall further than we previously assumed for the FOMC to cut."

On the plus side, the Fed’s newest economic forecasts suggested economic growth would slow next year to about 1.5%, from 2.1% this year, an improvement from the predictions three months ago of just 1.1% growth next year, after just 1% this year.

2. Futures retreat after hawkish Fed stance

U.S. stock futures retreated early Thursday, adding to the previous session’s losses after the Fed signaled a higher for longer monetary policy, with one more interest rate hike likely this year.

At 04:40 ET (08:40 GMT), the contract dropped 80 points, or 0.2%, dropped by 17 points, or 0.4%, and dropped 90 points, or 0.6%.

The main indices on Wall Street fell in the prior session, with the tech-heavy index hit particularly hard, dropping 1.5%.

There is more economic data for investors to digest Thursday, with weekly and the due before the opening bell, and later in the session.

Earnings are due from Darden Restaurants (NYSE:), owner of the Olive Garden and other chains, and the retail pharmacy chain Rite Aid (NYSE:).

Additionally, FedEx (NYSE:) stock soared over 5% premarket after the delivery company lifted its annual earnings guidance, while marketing automation firm (NYSE:) slipped premarket after a strong debut on Wednesday.

3. Finely balanced BOE call

The central bank focus now turns to Europe, with no less than four of the region's biggest central banks meeting today, highlighted by the Bank of England’s get together.

Sweden’s and the hiked interest rates as expected, while the kept its main policy rate unchanged at 1.75%, ending its run of five consecutive increases since it began lifting rates out of negative territory in June 2022.

The was also widely tipped to tighten monetary policy at the start of the week, but Wednesday's surprise fall in British inflation has made this decision a finely balanced call on whether to hike or skip.

The U.K. headline sank to an 18-month low of 6.7% in August, while core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, fell sharply to 6.2% from 6.9% in July.

"Thursday's Bank of England meeting just got a lot more interesting," James Smith, an economist at ING, said. "It's a very close call, but we're still tempted to say the Bank will follow through with a hike."

However, if the BOE does lift interest rates later Thursday, this increase is likely to the last for some time.

4. Dollar soars, U.S. yields at 2008 highs

The dollar soared to fresh highs and U.S. Treasury yields hit multi-year peaks in the wake of the Federal Reserve’s meeting, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell flagging at least one more interest rate hike this year.

At 04:40 ET (08:40 GMT), the , which measures the currency against a basket of rivals, rose 0.4% to 105.174, having earlier climbed as high as 105.68, its strongest since early March.

The benchmark soared to a 15-year high, while yields jumped to their highest levels since early-2001.

“This hawkish hold may well keep the dollar bid into October and it will have to be softer U.S. activity data – particularly a rise in jobless claims or a decline in consumer confidence and retail sales – which will be required to soften up the dollar,” said analysts at ING, in a note.

“Dollar bears will get no joy from the Fed.”

5. Oil falls sharply after Fed meeting, crude stockpiles

Oil prices dropped sharply Thursday, pulling further back from recent highs after the Fed’s warning on higher U.S. interest rates raised concerns of a further hit to economic activity, potentially denting crude demand.

Data from the U.S. , released on Wednesday, showed crude inventories fell just over 2 million barrels last week, well short of the 5.25 million barrel drop the industry body had reported a day earlier.

The Fed’s hawkish stance also led to the U.S. dollar surging to its highest since early March, making commodities such as oil which are denominated in dollars more expensive for buyers using other currencies.

By 04:40 ET, the futures traded 1.4% lower at $88.44 a barrel, while the contract dropped 1.4% to $92.27.

The benchmarks are extending losses into a third straight session after soaring to 10-month highs earlier in the week on expectations of tight supply.

Statement:
The content of this article does not represent the views of fxgecko website. The content is for reference only and does not constitute investment suggestions. Investment is risky, so you should be careful in your choice! If it involves content, copyright and other issues, please contact us and we will make adjustments at the first time!

Related News

您正在访问的是FxGecko网站。 FxGecko互联网及其移动端产品是中国香港特别行政区成立的Hitorank Co.,LIMITED旗下运营和管理的一款面向全球发行的企业资讯査询工具。

您的IP为 中国大陆地区,抱歉的通知您,不能为您提供查询服务,还请谅解。请遵守当地地法律。