Analysts at Mizuho said in a research note Thursday that they believe there is one semiconductor chip stock that can turn market sentiment higher or lower quickly.

The firm believes AMD (NASDAQ:) "will be huge for semis and AI basket come April 30."

"This is the semi stock that in my view can turn the sentiment higher or lower, and quickly," wrote analysts at Mizuho.

They note that sentiment and positioning are "way down" as the stock is off 27% in five weeks from its March high on fears of MI300 order cuts, the lack of HBM DRAM supply, and "the view they are toast post NVDA Blackwell launch end '24 and into '25."

"What they say about [the] outlook for MI300 beyond Q2 is critical to support stock and bring any potential buyers back," said Mizuho, which acknowledges the AMD chart is in "absolute freefall," with no one willing to step up and buy on the fear it's like catching a falling knife ahead of a "risky April 30 earnings print."

"I think broader semis react a lot to AMD results and comments and that has biggest chance to rebound sector, or drive it lower quickly," added analysts at Mizuho, who remain AMD bulls.