Oil prices set for positive week on demand hopes, Middle East tensions By
2024-05-10 22:20:08

-- Oil prices rose Friday, on track for a positive week, after signs of demand growth in both the U.S. and China, while tensions remained strained in the Middle East. 

At 08:40 ET (12:40 GMT), rose 0.5% to $84.26 a barrel, while gained 0.6% to $79.73 a barrel.  

Oil heads for weekly gains

Both benchmark contracts were set to post gains of around 2% this week, boosted by stronger-than-expected overall data from China, the world’s biggest oil importer. Signs of strong domestic demand pushed up hopes that oil demand will start picking up in the Asian giant.

China’s oil imports added to the positive overall tone as well, as although imports fell from the prior month, they came in above the levels seen last year. 

Additionally, inventories surprisingly fell last week, and refining and fuel demand is set to increase tracking higher travel demand during summer. 

"EIA data shows that U.S .commercial crude oil inventories fell by 1.36m barrels over the last week, different to the 500k barrel build the API reported," analysts at ING said, in a note.

"The decline in crude oil stocks was driven by stronger exports, which increased by 550kk b/d WoW to 4.47m b/d, and stronger refinery activity."

Israel-Hamas ceasefire appears unlikely, tensions high 

Israel has continued its assault on the South Gaza city of Rafah, even as Hamas said the assault largely undermined ceasefire talks.

The attacks persisted even as the U.S. said it will suspend weapon shipments to Israel over the Rafah strikes. 

The Rafah strikes pointed to sustained geopolitical unrest, resulting a risk premium remaining alive in crude markets, given that geopolitical unrest in the Middle East could potentially disrupt supplies from the crude-rich region. 

OPEC+ to roll over cuts? 

Also supporting prices this week has been talk that the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries. and allies, known as OPEC+, will continue to roll over output cuts, in an attempt to limit global supply.

"OPEC+ members will also become uncomfortable if starts flirting with $80/bbl, a level which is not too far away," ING added.  

"As we have mentioned previously, price weakness increases the likelihood that OPEC+ members will fully rollover their 2.2m b/d of additional voluntary cuts into the second half of the year, which risks overtightening the market later in 2024, assuming no downside surprises on the demand side."

(Ambar Warrick contributed to this article.)

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