European stocks rise on rate cut bets, yen falls after BoJ By Reuters
2023-12-19 18:20:06
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By Elizabeth Howcroft

London (Reuters) -European stocks rose in early trade on Tuesday and global shares were near their highest since April 2022 as traders bet on rate cuts next year, while the yen fell after the Bank of Japan stuck to its ultra-easy monetary policy.

In a widely expected move, the Bank of Japan kept its ultra-low interest rates unchanged. It also made no change to its dovish policy guidance, dashing hopes among some traders it would tweak the language to signal a near-term end to negative interest rates.

The yen tumbled, with dollar-yen up 1.2% at 144.5 at 0924 GMT and euro-yen up 1.3% at 158.17. The rose in relief, led by technology shares, and Japanese government bonds yields fell.

The supportive sentiment helped boost global markets more broadly, with the MSCI World Equity index up 0.1% on the day. Europe's was up 0.2% and London's was up 0.1%.

The Bank of Japan's "dovish stance... is something that is supportive of sentiment and we've been seeing that playing out in equities which are just moving modestly higher," said Fiona Cincotta, senior markets analyst at City Index.

Cincotta said that lower liquidity may also be a factor in market moves, as traders take leave ahead of the Christmas holiday.

Meanwhile, traders were weighing up various hints about the trajectory for rates in the U.S. and euro zone.

European Central Bank member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said that interest rates should be lowered some time in 2024 and that inflation should be back down to the ECB's 2% target by 2025 at the latest.

"This is not just a forecast, this is a commitment," he said.

At the central bank's meeting last week, ECB President Christina Lagarde pushed back against market bets on imminent rate cuts, but markets were not convinced. Dovish ECB policymaker Yannis Stournaras also told Reuters on Monday that the ECB must see inflation stable at below 3% by the middle of next year before beginning to lower rates.

"Although the ECB pushed back on rate cuts, given that inflation is close to that 2% level, given that we’re seeing weakness in data, I don’t think the market necessarily finds it that credible that they’re going to be keeping rates elevated for much longer," Cincotta said.

Euro zone government bond yields were down, with the benchmark German 10-year yield lower 5 basis points at 2.025%.

The euro was up 0.2% at $1.0942. The was flat at 102.5, after dropping 1.3% last week.

The was at 3.9107%.

Treasury yields dropped last week after Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell was seen as unexpectedly dovish at the end of the Fed's meeting. Yields then reversed course on Monday, rising after Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee pushed back against market pricing of interest rate cuts.

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester told the Financial Times on Monday that markets had got "a little bit ahead" of the central bank on when to expect interest rate cuts.

Oil lost some recent gains. Oil prices had benefited from the Iran-aligned Yemeni Houthi militant group attacking ships in the Red Sea.

futures were down 0.3% at $77.71 while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down 0.9% at $71.85.

Gold was steady at $2,026.1 an ounce.

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