Cathie Wood, active stock-picking manager for the ultra-hip ARK Innovation ETF (NYSE:ARKK), is still a bonafide superstar. At least according to CNBC.

Unfortunately, the shine may be coming off the mantlepiece. The Nasdaq 100 Index via Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) is up more than 25% in 2021. Ms. Wood’s collection of disruptive technology growth stocks? Down more than 20%.

ARKK Daily Chart.

There’s more.

The poor showing in 2021 has brought ARKKs longer-run performance back in line with its Nasdaq/large-cap growth benchmark. Active stock picking is not beating passive indexing.

ARKK 2-Year Chart.

Perhaps ironically, the chart above rhymes with the 1998-2000 dot-com implosion. At that time, disruptive internet corporations (dot-coms) were changing the world like a tidal wave. You had to own the stocks… no matter the price.

By the end of 2000, dot-com disruptive stocks in the QQQ Trust, and virtually all of the large-cap growth space, had given back its outperformance over the broader market.

QQQ, S&P 500 Daily Charts.

It gets worse.

Ridiculously overpriced growth stocks were not done selling-off. Over the next two years, investors in hyper-valued equities watched their portfolios crash and burn.

QQQ, S&P 500 Daily Charts.

If history is any indication of what happens to hyper-valued growth stocks, they will not simply come back to the pack. They will go on to destroy the retirement accounts of die-hard believers and hold-n-hopers alike.

Make no mistake about it. While history will not repeat itself in precisely the same manner, while the Federal Reserve may be willing to do whatever it takes to avoid reliving the horrors of 2000-2002 and/or 2008-2009, hyper-valued asset pricing will not last.

How overvalued are stocks right now? You be the judge.

Average Valuation Indicators Historical Chart.

Or you can use these metrics.

S&P 500 Historical Chart.

Or even Warren Buffett’s favorite indicator, market-cap to GDP.

Market-cap To GDP Historical Chart.

Fundamental overvaluation is obvious, no matter where one looks. The only question is whether or not the Fed has the “do whatever it takes” firepower to backstop stocks the next time the fit hits the shan.

The same holds for the American love affair with real estate. Inflation-adjusted home values have now surpassed the 2006-2007 real estate bubble.

Real Zillow Home Value Index 20-Year Chart.

“History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes”–Mark Twain.